Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. From Latin America to the Gulf, it’s another day of cross-border manoeuvring: the U.S. and Ecuador launch joint anti-drug operations, Washington reportedly explores arming Kurdish forces against Tehran, and Saudi Arabia’s critical Ras Tanura oil hub is struck again.
In Iran, preparations are underway for a multi-day farewell ceremony for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while Canada’s Mark Carney looks to deepen trade and defence ties with Australia as middle powers recalibrate in a shifting global order. In today’s deep dive, we cover the rift between the USA and Spain over the conflict in Iran and the wider issues it causes in Europe.
The U.S. Southern Command announced that the U.S. and Ecuadorian military forces launched joint operations in Ecuador targeting groups the United States has designated as narco-terrorist organisations as part of broader efforts to combat drug-related violence and organised crime. Southern Command described the actions as “decisive” measures against narcoterrorism, though both governments have kept operational details classified, and Ecuador’s Defence Ministry confirmed the collaboration on social media. General Francis L. Donovan, commander of U.S. Southern Command, praised Ecuador’s armed forces for their commitment.
U.S. intelligence, including the Central Intelligence Agency, is reportedly working on plans to arm Iranian Kurdish forces, with the aim of helping to spark a popular uprising against Tehran’s government, multiple sources familiar with the discussions told CNN. The Trump administration has held active talks with Iranian opposition groups and Kurdish leaders in Iraq about potential military support, and Kurdish militias along the Iraq-Iran border are said to be preparing for a possible ground operation in western Iran.
Iranians are set to bid farewell to the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at a state ceremony beginning Wednesday evening at the Imam Khomeini prayer ground in Tehran, with official reports saying the ritual will extend over three days. The event precedes the planned burial of Khamenei in the holy city of Mashhad, his birthplace and a major Shia pilgrimage site. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has organised the farewell rites amidst official mourning.
Canadian PM Mark Carney is in Australia this week on a strategic Asia-Pacific tour aimed at deepening economic and defence ties with Canberra as part of broader efforts to strengthen partnerships among like-minded “middle powers.” Officials say Canada and Australia plan to expand cooperation across trade, security, critical minerals, maritime defence, and emerging technologies, building on existing intelligence-sharing and investment links. Carney’s visit reflects Ottawa’s push to diversify trade relationships and collaborate more closely on economic and security challenges amid shifting global dynamics.
Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura oil facility, one of the kingdom’s most important export hubs, was struck again by an unidentified projectile, according to multiple sources, marking a second incident in days amid regional tensions. The precise target within the Saudi Aramco complex and the extent of any damage or disruption remain unclear, and there has been no immediate official comment detailing casualties or operational impact. This latest strike follows a recent drone attack that forced a temporary shutdown of parts of the vast Ras Tanura facility.
Spain has pushed back after Donald Trump threatened to cut off all trade with the country over its refusal to support U.S. military operations linked to strikes on Iran. Madrid made clear that American forces cannot use Spanish bases for attacks on Iran, stressing that the facilities remain under Spanish sovereignty and must operate within existing bilateral agreements and the UN Charter. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez also criticised the U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran, calling them a violation of international law while urging diplomatic solutions to the conflict. Following Spain’s refusal, the U.S. relocated 15 aircraft — including aerial refuelling tankers — from the Rota and Morón bases in southern Spain. Trump responded angrily, saying Spain had been “terrible” and that he had instructed Treasury officials to cut off all trade with the country. Despite the threat, Spain signalled it could manage the economic impact. The U.S. actually ran a $4.8bn trade surplus with Spain in 2025, meaning Washington exports more to Spain than it imports.
Shortly after Germany's Merz said he supports U.S. embargoing Spain, claiming it's to "convince" them to increase NATO spending. Germany’s proposal to support a U.S. trade embargo on Spain to pressure higher NATO spending raises serious concerns. First, it weaponises trade against an EU member, undermining European economic unity and potentially violating EU single market rules. Second, it risks escalating internal divisions within NATO and the EU at a time when alliance cohesion is critical. Third, coercive economic measures could backfire politically in Spain, strengthening domestic opposition to NATO rather than increasing defence spending. Finally, setting a precedent of punitive economic pressure among allies could destabilise transatlantic cooperation and weaken the credibility of Western institutions built on mutual partnership rather than compulsion.
And in legal terms, NATO defence spending is not legally binding, so legally Spain is doing nothing wrong. Overall, the Chancellor's actions do nothing but cause internal division and questions over European dependence on the U.S. Subscribe to our Youtube here!

TODAY IN HISTORY (March 4, 1933): Inauguration of U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt
On this day in 1933, in the midst of the Great Depression, Franklin D. Roosevelt was inaugurated as the 32nd U.S. president, and later he led the country out of the Depression and to victory in World War II.

Today we cover how the Iran war is shattering the Gulf states' decades-long financial bargain with the West and why the tremors could shake the foundations of the dollar itself.
As it is ANZAC day, we're doing a deep dive on Australia's $53 billion defence boost in the next decade. JNIM has also launched a new offensive in the Sahel region.
Iran is reviving old tankers to stop possible overflow, as more supplies arrive to U.S. bases and a third carrier has officially arrived.
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