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Friday Brief · Issue #317
Iran Is Preparing For Oil Overflow As Third Carrier Arrives
Back to homeBasedment Analysis
ISSUE #317Friday, 24 April 20265 min read5 stories · 1 deep dive
01
The Briefing
◆Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. A ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon gets a three-week extension, while Iran heads back to the table for indirect talks with the U.S. in Islamabad.
Elsewhere, Myanmar tightens control with martial law across dozens of townships, as Europe quietly drafts its own defence playbook amid uncertainty over Washington. And in Latin America, Colombia and Venezuela reopen dialogue, signalling a tentative reset in regional relations.
In today’s deep dive, we focus on Iran reviving old tankers to stop possible overflow, as more supplies arrive to U.S. bases and a third carrier has officially arrived.
— The Basedment Editorial Team· 24 Apr 2026
02
The Last 24 Hours in Geopolitics
◆01
Israel-Lebanon ceasefire to be extended by three weeks
The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has been extended by three weeks following US-hosted talks in Washington, with the announcement made by Donald Trump and supported by Vice President JD Vance. The extension builds on an initial 10-day truce agreed earlier in April and is intended to provide more time for negotiations toward a longer-term agreement between the two sides. Trump hosted Israel's ambassador to Washington Yechiel Leiter and Lebanese ambassador to the US Nada Moawad in the Oval Office for this round of talks that led to the extension.
02
Iran’s Foreign Minister heading to Islamabad to resume indirect talks with US
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is travelling to Islamabad to resume indirect talks with the United States, with Pakistan acting as a mediator between the two sides. The discussions aim to revive negotiations following the collapse of earlier peace talks, with no direct meeting currently planned between Iranian and U.S. officials.
03
Myanmar’s government imposes martial law in 60 townships
Myanmar’s military-backed government has imposed martial law in 60 townships, granting the armed forces expanded authority to oversee security and administration in conflict-affected areas. The move was enacted through new emergency ordinances issued by President Min Aung Hlaing, aimed at tightening control in regions still facing active resistance and instability. The decision underscores the ongoing unrest across the country, as the military continues to rely on expanded powers to manage the prolonged civil conflict.
04
EU prepares ‘blueprint’ for mutual aid clause amid Trump worries
The European Union is preparing a detailed “blueprint” for how its mutual assistance clause would operate if a member state comes under attack, amid growing uncertainty over U.S. commitment to NATO. The clause, known as Article 42.7, obliges EU countries to support one another in the event of armed aggression but currently lacks clear operational guidelines, prompting calls for more concrete planning.
05
Colombia’s leader to visit Venezuela for talks with acting president Rodriguez
Colombian President Gustavo Petro is set to visit Venezuela for talks with acting President Delcy Rodríguez, focusing on border security, trade and energy cooperation. The meeting in Caracas will address shared challenges along the 2,200-kilometre border, including armed groups, drug trafficking and cross-border instability, while also exploring the potential reopening of a key gas pipeline. The visit comes amid shifting regional dynamics following the removal of former leader Nicolás Maduro, with both countries seeking to strengthen ties despite ongoing political uncertainty in Venezuela.
03
Daily Deep Dive
◆Analysis · iran
Iran Is Preparing For Oil Overflow As Third Carrier Arrives
Iran is reviving old tankers to stop possible overflow, as more supplies arrive to U.S. bases and a third carrier has officially arrived.
Iran-USA-Israel
The ceasefire between the US and Iran remains in place with no set end date. Trump extended it indefinitely, saying it would continue until Iran's leaders submit a "unified proposal" to end the war. Trump also said there is "no time frame" for the conflict and rejected suggestions that political considerations are influencing his approach.
On the diplomacy front, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travelled to Islamabad for consultations, with visits to Muscat and Moscow also planned. A second round of formal talks has not been confirmed. The first round in Islamabad on April 11 ended without a breakthrough.
The US naval blockade of Iranian ports remains the main sticking point. Iranian President Pezeshkian said Tehran wants dialogue but that the blockade and what he called US "breach of commitments" are holding up negotiations. Iran's IRGC has captured two foreign vessels and fired on a third near the Strait of Hormuz.
On nuclear talks, Trump is insisting Iran halt all uranium enrichment and hand over its stockpile, which Iran has rejected.
A few other developments from the past day: Trump stated for the first time that the US would not use nuclear weapons against Iran. Iran's president, parliament speaker and judiciary chief issued a joint statement rejecting Trump's claims of internal divisions within Tehran's leadership. A former US ambassador to Bahrain noted that Iran has options to work around the blockade by selling oil through alternative channels, and that the pressure campaign may take longer than anticipated.
The strategy here seems to be strangling Iran through depleted exports. One cannot just simply turn off oil production, the big problem is overflow. To mitigate the risk of storage capacity being exceeded at Kharg Island, Iran has reactivated NASHA (IMO 9079107), a 30-year-old VLCC that had remained idle for several years. The vessel is currently undertaking a voyage lasting roughly four days, significantly longer than the typical 1.5 to 2-day transit.
In the mean time, to quote CENTCOM, "For the first time since 2003, three aircraft carriers are operating in the Middle East at the same time. Accompanied by their carrier air wings, the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72), USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) and USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) include over 200 aircraft and 15,000 Sailors and Marines."
We’re also seeing a significant increase over tankers over the last few days. Israeli airports are loaded with aerial refuelling tankers. Keep your eyes open on this conflict.
Source
Available upon request
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Tweet of the Day
◆Tweet of the Day
Jon Cooper 🇺🇸
@joncoopertweets · Twitter / X
This photo should be on the front page of every single newspaper in America today.
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Today in History
◆—
This Day in History
TODAY IN HISTORY (April 23, 1906): A Scottish island is freed of anthrax
On this day in 1990, Gruinard Island was declared safe after a 48-year quarantine. This remote island off the western coast of Scotland was, in the 1940s, a deserted place. The British government decided it would be the perfect setting to test a plan to attack Nazi Germany with anthrax-laced cattle feed. Scattered across the German countryside, the feed would be eaten by livestock, the British reasoned, and then enter the food supply, causing mass casualties. So they did the same to Gruinard: they let dozens of sheep loose, exposed them to the anthrax bacterium, saw the sheep die, and decided the plan would work. It was never implemented, however, and Gruinard was left contaminated until, after years of protests, the government removed the island's top layers of soil, eradicating the lingering anthrax spores and making Gruinard safe for birds, rabbits, and tourists.
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