Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. From a new Russia–North Korea bridge taking shape to fresh violence in Lebanon, it’s a day where geopolitics and security risks are front and centre.
Europe sees a breakthrough as Ukraine restarts Russian oil flows, while the UK strikes another deal with France to curb Channel crossings. Meanwhile, a deadly attack on a mining site in Pakistan is a reminder that instability continues to simmer well beyond the major headlines.
In today’s deep dive, we focus on the massive financial injection that Ukraine is set to receive across two years.
North Korea and Russia are preparing to open a new road bridge across the Tumen River, marking the first direct road link between the two countries. The project, agreed during President Vladimir Putin’s 2024 visit to Pyongyang, is expected to boost trade, tourism and cross-border movement, with the bridge capable of handling hundreds of vehicles per day. Officials say the crossing could open as early as June, highlighting the deepening economic and strategic ties between Moscow and Pyongyang.
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon have killed at least five people, including a local journalist who was reporting from the area. The journalist was among a group hit during the strikes, with another reporter injured, while Lebanese officials said rescue efforts were delayed amid continued fire. The Israeli military said the strikes targeted Hezbollah-linked positions and denied deliberately targeting journalists, as tensions continue despite the ceasefire.
Ukraine has resumed the transit of Russian oil to Europe via the Druzhba pipeline, restoring flows to countries including Hungary and Slovakia after months of disruption. The restart prompted Hungary to lift its veto on a €90 billion European Union loan for Ukraine, clearing the way for approval of a critical financial support package for Kyiv. The funding is intended to help cover Ukraine’s budget and military needs through 2027, with officials describing the breakthrough as a significant step in easing both energy and financial tensions linked to the war.
The United Kingdom has agreed to pay France up to £660 million over three years as part of a new deal aimed at reducing migrant crossings across the English Channel. The funding will support expanded French enforcement efforts, including additional police, surveillance capabilities and operations targeting people-smuggling networks, with part of the money tied to performance outcomes. The agreement replaces a previous arrangement and reflects continued efforts by both countries to curb irregular migration, though similar measures in the past have faced criticism over their effectiveness.
At least nine people have been killed after gunmen attacked a copper and gold mining site in Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan province. Local officials said the victims included workers and security personnel at the site, with the attack taking place in the Chagai district, a region long affected by insurgent activity. Security forces later secured the area and launched an operation, while no group immediately claimed responsibility for the assault.
Ukraine will get €45 billion in 2026 and another €45 billion in 2027. Each year, €28 billion will be used for spending on military needs and €17 billion on general budget needs. The first disbursement is expected between late May and early June 2026. €60 billion — Military/Defence (two-thirds) €60 billion will be allocated to strengthen Ukraine's defence capabilities and support the procurement of military equipment, ensuring timely access to critical defence products from (in principle) Ukrainian, EU, and EEA/EFTA defence industries. €30 billion — Budget Support (one-third) €30 billion will be made available for macro-financial assistance or budget support, delivered through the EU's Ukraine Facility. This covers wages, pensions, hospitals, schools, and keeping the state functioning.
What the Military €60 Billion Is For €60 billion will be used to support Ukraine's capacity to invest in defence industrial capacities and to procure military equipment. The funding will give Ukraine crucial and timely access to defence products from both the Ukrainian and EU defence industries.
In terms of specific hardware being discussed, Swedish Defence Minister Pål Jonson has suggested that part of the money be allocated to Gripen fighter jets and air defence. Beyond that, based on what EU/Ukrainian funds have historically been buying:
Over $70 billion in military assistance has previously flowed (ranging from ammunition to air-defence systems, Leopard tanks, and fighter jets) including an unprecedented $6.6 billion from the "European Peace Facility," in addition to bilateral contributions by member states. EU support also includes $2.2 billion for the joint procurement and delivery of up to an additional one million rounds of artillery ammunition, and an additional $535 million to boost EU defence industry capacities in ammunition production.
On the procurement rules, there is a "cascading principle: weapons and ammunition will be bought within Ukraine, the EU, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland first. If the equipment is not available anywhere in those countries, Kyiv will be allowed to go to other markets, such as the United States. Countries that have security and defence partnerships with the EU (such as the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea and Canada) will also benefit from the priority of purchase if they pay a "fair and proportionate" contribution to the borrowing.
Financial Issues Not Solved Despite the scale, it's still not enough. Kyiv faces a defence gap of €19.6 billion in 2026, even after accounting for €86.7 billion already committed and the extra €28.3 billion on its way as part of this loan. Ukraine needs a total of €134.6 billion for its defence in 2026.
Ukraine's annual defence expenditure has not changed substantially since 2022, reaching €60 billion last year, while Russia's spending stands at about €130 billion annually. Even using up the full €60 billion account for buying arms and developing defence-industrial capacity over the next two years will not be enough for winning the war.
Ukraine is not expected to repay the loan from its own resources, repayment is scheduled only when Russia pays war reparations. Approximately €210 billion of Russian central bank assets are frozen in the EU, which may be used for repayment. Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic (with governments seen as closer to Moscow) secured exemptions meaning none of the three countries will participate in the joint borrowing.The deal was struck under an "enhanced cooperation" mechanism allowing willing states to proceed without unanimity.
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TODAY IN HISTORY (April 23, 1906): Russian Tsar Nicholas II promulgated the Fundamental Laws, which marked the end of unlimited autocracy but fell short of the reforms promised in the October Manifesto.

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