New Syrian-Kurdish Deal? We're Not Totally Convinced By It

Damascus has quietly taken a major step toward reshaping Syria’s security future. According to Syria in Translation, Defence Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra has delivered the first written confirmation that Assad-era institutions are accepting the terms of a previously verbal deal with the SDF — an agreement originally approved by President Ahmed al-Sharaa before his November trip to Washington. The document formalises a framework that would fold the SDF into Syria’s state structures without dismantling its autonomy. The SDF would remain a unified force split into three divisions — Border Guard, Women’s, and Counter-Terrorism, with Damascus barred from deploying its own security units into the northeast. In exchange, the SDF would gain unprecedented influence inside Syria’s military establishment, including three deputy minister posts and the integration of 70 senior commanders into the national army. After months of hesitation it seems, Damascus appears to have reversed course, likely under renewed US pressure, opening the door to the most serious SDF–state merger to date.

However, according well-known ME source Rifai, senior SDF officials say there’s no real movement on the integration track and no urgency to alter the current arrangements, despite the media chatter. He notes that relations between President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Mazloum Abdi remain solid, with Abdi even stepping in to cover certain salary payments in Aleppo after a request from Damascus. Oil-revenue sharing between the SDF and the central government is already functioning, and when asked whether any major changes were expected soon, the response from his SDF interlocutors was a clear no. Read Here

Some of the unresolved issues centre on how Kurdish culture would be protected within reformed Syrian institutions. Kurdish officials worry that discrimination could persist — for example, the Kurdish language still not being officially taught or recognised. There’s also the reality that Kurds are not confined to eastern Syria. Significant communities live in Afrin, northwest of Aleppo, as well as in the major Aleppo suburb of Sheikh Maqsoud. If both sides truly view the war as over, then offering the Kurds limited security autonomy won’t be enough. They will want formal recognition within the constitutional framework of the state.

But based on the two sources we’ve cited, relations do appear to be improving at least on the diplomatic level — something al-Sharaa badly needs after one of his own delegates unexpectedly killed two U.S. service members and a translator during a meeting. What makes that incident even more significant is that it was the first time U.S. troops were being escorted by the new government; previously, that role had always fallen to the SDF. President Trump may publicly frame the event as “ISIS” to save face, but behind closed doors it’s almost certain that serious questions were raised.

And as I write this, a major joint operation between the SDF and U.S. forces is underway against remaining ISIS pockets in the east — a reminder for al-Sharaa that the Kurds still have major influence with the Americans.

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