New Negotiations Close Says Sources While Iran Thinks Otherwise

Iran-USA-Israel

Five deadlines. Five extensions. And tonight, the clock is ticking again.

As of April 6, the U.S. and Iran find themselves locked in an increasingly bizarre diplomatic dance, where Trump threatens catastrophe, extends the clock, then threatens again. The current deadline, Tuesday April 7 at 8 PM Eastern, carries the same energy as every previous one, which is to say, nobody is entirely sure it will hold.

Here is where each side actually stands.

On the U.S. side, Trump told Axios he is "in deep negotiations" with Iran, saying "there is a good chance" of a deal, before adding, "if they don't make a deal, I am blowing up everything over there." The proposed framework on the table, according to sources, is a two-phased arrangement, starting with a 45-day ceasefire during which a permanent end to the war would be negotiated, with the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile left as bargaining chips for the final deal. Pakistan's army chief was reportedly in contact overnight brokering the latest framework proposal. We really have to take into account the internet memes about the news often being tied to the markets opening and closing — as funny as it is, this is has to be considered — Trump greatly cares about public opinion and the stock market. Iran's position, however, is considerably harder. Tehran says it has formulated a response to ceasefire proposals from intermediaries, but will not engage in direct talks while U.S. and Israeli attacks continue. Per the Arab diplomat cited in regional media, Iran privately believes it can end this war on its own terms, not Washington's, viewing the 15-point U.S. proposal as little more than dressed-up surrender. The IRGC Navy went further, saying the Strait situation will "never return" to what it was before the war. Arab diplomat source

Mediators have reportedly told Iranian officials that the next 48 hours represent the last real opportunity to avoid massive destruction. Iran, for now, appears unmoved. Like I’ve said before, Trump is entering dangerous waters here, he risks falling for the same red line paradox that Putin found himself in. He can continue to keep calling for more strikes but each new “wave” loses symbolism and effect. Simply put, until the U.S. and Israel can figure out how disable or eliminate these missile launch platforms, Iran can control the leverage game. This is why we’re seeing an increase on infrastructure attacks — if the U.S. cannot smoke the IRGC out of the mountains, it will destroy anything it can that will severely limit the resumption of a functioning state. If anything will push the Iranians towards a deal, it will be strikes on infrastructure. Tuesday will be telling.