GEOPOLITICS DAILY BRIEFING - 21 June

With all eyes in the skies above Israel, what’s the ground report?

Most of the fighting in Gaza continues to be concentrated in the northern Khan Younis sector, where the majority of Israel’s regular IDF brigades remain stationed. These areas have become the focal point of the ground campaign, as Israel pushes forward with plans to dismantle Hamas' military infrastructure and control key terrain. However, this force posture is expected to shift. Reports suggest the IDF will reduce its troop presence in Gaza by nearly half to reinforce Israel’s northern and eastern borders amid growing concerns of a wider regional war. The threat of Hezbollah attacks from Lebanon and possible infiltration attempts from Jordan and Syria have prompted Israeli defence officials to redirect military resources closer to home.

According to critics, the IDF is reactivating the controversial “Five Finger Policy”—a military strategy designed to divide Gaza into five distinct zones using Israeli-controlled corridors that double as fortified bases. The aim is to fracture Gaza's territorial continuity and limit Hamas' ability to regroup or move freely between regions. Existing corridors include the Philadelphia Corridor along the southern border, the reoccupied Netzarim Corridor that splits Gaza in half, and the Mefalsim Corridor in the northeast. Two more corridors—Kissufim (partially built) and Sufa (not yet constructed)—are reportedly in various stages of implementation. This policy has been criticised for deepening Gaza’s fragmentation and undermining any pathway to a unified civilian recovery.

In Khan Younis, the IDF is applying the “Rafah model,” involving mass evacuations followed by a sweeping military takeover. With Rafah, the Netzarim Corridor, and much of the north under IDF control, Israel now claims to hold approximately 75% of the Gaza Strip. Hamas resistance has thinned in some areas, with many fighters fleeing west toward al-Mawasi, now designated a humanitarian zone.