Conflict Breaks Out In Northern Syria (Part 2)

Negotiations Ongoing?

Government and allied forces attacked Omar’s base with heavy weaponry throughout the entirety of yesterday, with at least ten members killed during the assault. However, the base still holds. According to Cedric, negotiations are underway to merge the French fighters from the camp into the 84th Army Division, which is primarily composed of Central Asian fighters. This proposal stems from the fact that the French and Central Asians were once combined before a peaceful split in 2018. The main issue is that Firkat al-Ghuraba carries too much bad blood with the former Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (now the current government), and it may be too late to integrate them into the central system without risking further violence in the future. As for Omar, no one seems to know his current situation or whether he is alive or dead. No official statements have been released from either side.

Fighting Spreading?

A recent video was shared showing a group of Uzbek jihadists pledging their support to Omar and the Firkat al-Ghuraba group. The size and capability of the group remain unclear, but what is more important is their decision to align with Omar. Their confidence possibly conveys that Jolani’s grip on foreign fighters may not be as firm as previously believed, at least in the north.

We have also seen a rise in IED bombings, first in Idlib, then Deir ez-Zor, and now Aleppo. A vehicle explosion struck the village of Al-Aziziya in the Al-Safira district of eastern Aleppo, killing two people after an explosive device planted in a vehicle belonging to Damascus government forces detonated. The incident underscores how instability is spreading beyond the traditional frontlines, showing that even regime-held areas are not immune to renewed unrest. However, we should be cautious about directly linking these incidents to the current fighting with Omar. The new Syrian government still faces numerous enemies, both internal and external. ISIS remains active in the Deir ez-Zor desert, while in Aleppo, tensions persist between government forces and the historically Kurdish neighbourhood of Sheikh Maqsoud.

Pain in the South

What certainly does not help the situation is further Israeli aggression in the south — and that is precisely what has just occurred. Israeli tanks deployed on the Syrian side of the border fired several shells tonight at the outskirts of Kuwiya, located in the Yarmuk Basin area of north-western Daraa. The strikes reportedly targeted positions near the village perimeter, though no casualties have been confirmed so far. This unchecked Israeli aggression is a major sore point for Al-Sharaa’s jihadists, who do not view events through a geopolitical lens but a religious one and for them, that means fighting Israel directly. Conclusion The same way we are watching events unfold in the north, rest assured that the various integrated foreign fighters within the Syrian army are watching closely too. As we’ve said, the outcome of this clash between Omar and Jolani will determine how much leverage al-Sharaa ultimately holds over his fighters. A failed negotiation or attempted takeover would amount to a major PR victory for Firkat al-Ghuraba, who would almost certainly call others to join their new jihad. Conversely, a successful deal or subjugation of the group would likely see those same integrated units continue to fall in line — as, ultimately, the central government controls the flow of both weaponry and financial support. It is, after all, a government backed by the U.S., Gulf States, and Turkey (to varying degrees). Sources: Sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.