Afghan-Pakistan Border Conflict Continues New Patterns In Iran

We are officially entering week two of the Iran campaign and we’re already starting to notice some changing trajectories. Over the last few days we have discussed the issues with a protracted campaign, air defence problems (loss of radars, THAAD systems, interceptor replenishment), and also the growing talks of Kurdish involvement in a ground campaign. The overall strategy in the first week was quite straightforward: a mass air campaign to disrupt and paralyse decision-making centres through strikes on command and control centres, whilst targeting all air defence systems — primarily in western and coastal Iran — and then underground missile facilities. New Patterns In the last 48 hours we have seen three new patterns and one old pattern reemerging. The first is that underground missile launch facilities remain key targets. We have seen extensive strikes through civilian footage and CENTCOM unclassified releases. It has also been confirmed that B-52s have been used, as well as B-1s and B-2s. The shift to this priority target and the use of extremely vulnerable equipment like the B-52 (for bunker-buster drops) suggests that the U.S. and Israeli air forces have confidence in their air superiority over the region.

Secondly, there has been an added focus on the bombing of coastal facilities in the Strait of Hormuz. I would argue there are several reasons for this. The most immediate is to ease the pressure of IRGC naval capabilities targeting ships. Oil prices are flying high at the moment and domestic pressure is mounting on the administration. But the larger issue isn’t necessarily ships being bombed, but rather the insurance risk that no one dares fully test.

Another medium- to long-term consideration is the softening up of military facilities for any possible ground force incursion — unlikely, but it cannot be ruled out. To add to this, we’re now seeing direct strikes on dual-use or civilian infrastructure. For example, the international airport in Tehran was heavily bombed. This suggests there may be a shift toward degrading Iranian ground force capability for uprisings or potential ethnic splits.

Old Pattern Remerges

Given we are heading into day eight or nine, another pattern is clear: we are at the same stage the second half of the 12-day war reached. As Israel’s launch capability plummets, so too do its enemies’ interception rates. This is likely due to a combination of radar gaps created by strikes, interceptor depletion, and the introduction of newer Iranian missile systems that shorten reaction times.